ESADEgeo Daily Digest, 08/10/2018

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Financial Times – John Paul Rathbone / Brazilians seek a far-right saviour in Bolsonaro

  • After a commanding win in Sunday’s first round vote in which he got 46 per cent, right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro will advance to a run-off election on October 28. He will compete against the leftist Fernando Haddad, a former mayor of São Paulo, who got 29 per cent.
  • Some voters, fearing that a Bolsonaro presidency could reverse democracy, will swing behind Haddad. Just as many, hating Haddad’s Workers Party and other establishment parties, will turn to Bolsonaro.
  • Underlying heated emotions is a deep desire for change. Change to a political system that served Brazil well since the onset of democracy in the 1980s but is now perceived to have corrupted itself. And change in a state-heavy economic model that has run out of steam.
  • Project Syndicate – Robert Muggah / Brazilian democracy on the brink

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty / Serb nationalist Dodik wins Bosnian Presidency seat; Dzaferovic, Komsic also appear victorious

  • Bosnian Serb nationalist Milorad Dodik has taken the lead in a vote for his community’s seat on Bosnia-Herzegovina’s three-member presidency, as the Balkan country awaits final results due later on October 8. Dodik’s main rival, Mladen Ivanic, has already conceded defeat.
  • Dodik, who has close links with Russia and favors a split-up of the Balkan country, told a news conference early on October 8 that his “first priority will be the position of the Serb people and of [the Serb-dominated entity of] Republika Srspka.”
  • The main Bosniak party said its candidate, Sefik Dzaferovic, will be the Muslim representative in the presidency. Croat voters, for their part, returned Zelijko Komsic to their presidential seat.
  • Croat nationalist Dragan Covic conceded defeat, but warned of a “never-seen-before” crisis in the country.

The New York Times – Coral Davenport / Major climate report describes a strong risk of crisis as early as 2040

  • A report issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide world leaders, describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040.
  • The authors found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by 2040.
  • Avoiding the most serious damage requires transforming the world economy within just a few years, said the authors. But while they conclude that it is technically possible to achieve the rapid changes required, they concede that it may be politically unlikely.
  • The report also finds that, in the likelihood that governments fail to avert 2.7 degrees of warming, another scenario is possible: The world could overshoot that target, heat up by more than 3.6 degrees, and then through a combination of lowering emissions and deploying carbon capture technology, bring the temperature back down below the 2.7-degree threshold. However, in that scenario, some damage would be irreversible.

Financial Times – Lionel Barber & Robin Harding / UK would be welcomed to TPP ‘with open arms’, says Abe

  • According to Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, Japan would welcome the UK “with open arms” to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP-11) once Britain left the EU’s customs union.
  • Abe said the UK would lose its role as a gateway to Europe after Brexit, but would still be a country “equipped with global strength”.
  • “I hope that both sides can contribute their wisdom and at least avoid a so-called disorderly Brexit,” said Abe, arguing that a transition period was essential for Japanese business.
  • On a different note, Abe repeated his willingness to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. “I feel that I must personally have a face-to-face talk with chairman Kim Jong-un and both of us must be ready to break the shell of mutual distrust.”

The selected pieces do not necessarily reflect the views of Javier Solana and ESADEgeo. The summaries above may include word-for-word excerpts from their respective pieces. 

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