Archivo de la categoria ‘Lecturas’

¿Qué hace avanzar a un economista en su carrera académica?

Published: 13 May 2013 by

This illustration is by Paul Lachine and comes from <a href="http://www.newsart.com">NewsArt.com</a>, and is the property of the NewsArt organization and of its artist. Reproducing this image is a violation of copyright law.

Dice Dani Rodrik, profesor de política económica internacional en la Universidad de Harvard, que el público debería saber lo siguiente sobre los economistas: “la astucia y no la sabiduría es lo que hace avanzar en su carrera a los economistas del mundo académico. Los profesores de las universidades más prestigiosas no se distinguen actualmente por acertar en sus afirmaciones sobre el mundo real, sino por idear retoques teóricos imaginativos o presentar documentación nueva. Si esas aptitudes los vuelven también observadores perspicaces de las sociedades reales y les brindan una sólida capacidad de juicio, raras veces se trata de algo intencionado”.

El artículo entero está disponible en Project Syndicate.

 

Lecturas | Permalink

¿Y si muriera el € mientras seguimos reunidos discutiendo?

Published: 28 June 2012 by

Der Spiegel, en consulta con expertos bancarios, calcula  la catástrofe, nos cuenta Lluis Bassets en su blog.

Para el conjunto de la UE la defunción del euro llevaría a una caída del 12 por ciento de la producción.

La industria exportadora alemana quedaría gravemente tocada por la caída de ventas a los países periféricos que devaluarían su divisa entre un 20 y un 40 por ciento.

Los bancos europeos, y especialmente los alemanes, experimentarían también pérdidas enormes por los riesgos contraídos en los países periféricos. Lo mismo sucedería con las pérdidas que podría generar el impago de las deudas soberanas en el Bundesbank, directamente 700.000 millones, e indirectamente por la parte de los 200.000 millones comprados por el Banco Central Europeo.

Der Spiegel asegura que el sistema de pensiones alemán quedaría también afectado.

La economía alemana se encogería un 10 por ciento y superaría rápidamente los cinco millones de parados, según un informe confidencial del ministerio de Finanzas citado por el semanario.

“Los funcionarios están tan horrorizados por las conclusiones que han preferido mantener sus análisis bajo confidencialidad”, asegura el semanario. Y añade: “Comparados con estos escenarios, el rescate, por costoso que sea, es un mal menor”.

Debate, Lecturas, Opinión, Política Internacional | Permalink

The other drama of the Greek crisis.The monuments have no voice

Published: 13 June 2012 by

I’ve allowed myself to publish this long article from the NYT on other serious side effects of the Greek that are being overlooked.

The front page of yesterday’s New York Times echoes the warning calls from the Association of Greek Archaeologists in recent months to defend Greece’s cultural heritage and whose latest manifestation is this posting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wly0GUZ_QZQ

Its message, clear and direct, reads, “Monuments have no voice. They must have yours,” regarding the effects of the cuts and the irreparable damage being done:

“In Messenia, on the Peloponnesian peninsula, excavation work has come to a halt on a fifth- or sixth-century B.C. mountaintop temple discovered in 2010 not far from the well-known Temple of Apollo Epicurius, a Unesco World Heritage site. Xeni Arapogianni, the state archaeologist who oversaw the region and directed the initial excavation of the newly discovered temple, was forced into early retirement last fall before she could complete research for publications about the find”.

“On the island of Kythira, Mr. Tsaravopoulos recently visited a plot of sparsely wooded field, acting on a tip from a friend that a bulldozer had been at work there without a permit or antiquities inspection. He arrived to find a makeshift dirt road freshly carved into a hillside, scattered with dozens of broken pieces of glazed pottery dating to Hellenic and early Roman times”.

And it sends a reminder of the service that archaeologists have lent Greek society for years, something that has earned them an honourable reputation and which has remained intact to the present day:

“Despite its relatively low pay, the profession of archaeology has long been held in high esteem in Greece; it is a job that children aspire to, like becoming a doctor. And in a country where the public sector has been plagued for decades with corruption, archaeologists have retained a reputation as generally honorable and hard-working.

They used to say that we were a special race,” said Alexandra Christopoulou, the deputy director of the National Archaeological Museum. “We worked overtime without getting paid for it — a rarity in Greece — because we really loved what we did”.

To read the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/arts/design/archaeologists-say-greek-antiquities-threatened-by-austerity.html

Cultura, Lecturas | Permalink

Is Greece European?

Published: 6 June 2012 by

Me gustaría recomendar la lectura de este artículo de Robert Kaplan sobre Grecia. Resume de forma maestra la Grecia de ayer y de hoy, sus contrastes, logros y fracasos en la historia y las consecuencias derivadas de una particular ubicación entre el este y el oeste, donde geopolítica y geografía conforman la cara de una misma moneda y cuyo efecto desestabilizador se ha mantenido manifiestamente vivo a lo largo de los siglos.

I’d like to recommend reading this article on Greece, by Robert Kaplan. It sums up masterfully the country’s past and present; its contrasts, successes and failures throughout history. It examines the consequences of Greece’s unique positioning between East and West – where geopolitics and geography are one and the same – and whose clearly destabilising effect has endured down through the centuries.

“Is Greece European?”, by Robert Kaplan:

Greece is where the West both begins and ends. The West — as a humanist ideal — began in ancient Athens where compassion for the individual began to replace the crushing brutality of the nearby civilizations of Egypt and Mesopotamia. The war that Herodotus chronicles between Greece and Persia in the 5th century B.C. established a contrast between West and East that has persisted for millennia. Greece is Christian, but it is also Eastern Orthodox, as spiritually close to Russia as it is to the West, and geographically equidistant between Brussels and Moscow. Greece may have invented the West with the democratic innovations of the Age of Pericles, but for more than a thousand years it was a child of Byzantine and Turkish despotism. And while Greece was the northwestern bastion of the anciently civilized Near East, ever since history moved north into colder climates following the collapse of Rome, the inhabitants of Peninsular Greece have found themselves at the poor, southeastern extremity of Europe.

Read more: Is Greece European? By Robert D. Kaplan | Stratfor

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/greece-european-robert-d-kaplan

Cultura, Lecturas, Política Internacional | , , , Permalink

The trial of Mubarak: Political and electoral consequences

Published: 3 June 2012 by

Excerps  from Egypt Independent journal.

The trial of Mubarak, Adly, Gamal and Alaa Mubarak, businessman Hussein Salem and the six Interior Ministry officials presented the judiciary with an opportunity to send a serious message to government institutions that abuse of power, human rights violations and corruption are no longer acceptable and regime figures are not above the law.

While Mubarak’s conviction may send a warning to the next president — whoever he is — the acquittal of Adly’s deputies suggests that the Interior Ministry can continue to kill dissenters with relative impunity. For human rights advocates, security sector reform has been a top priority in  post-Mubarak transition, but one that has seen few successes.

“The ministry continues to operate in an environment that will never be held accountable. There is already a lot of frustration and the lack of civic trust is increasing,” says Ennarah.

Moreover, the limited scope of the conviction for Mubarak doesn’t send the right signal to future politicians, according to Azzam. Although Refaat’s opening remarks referenced Mubarak’s 30 years of corruption and abuse, the former president was only convicted for killing protesters between 28 and 31 January, three days out of his 30-year reign under which the Interior Ministry is widely reported to have regularly tortured and killed with impunity.

“Mubarak was never tried for the 30 years of dictatorship when Egyptians suffered politically and economically. The trial was a microcosm of his political role. There was no judgment on the 30 years, in which the security services wreaked havoc on people’s lives.

Election impact

The results of the much-anticipated Mubarak trial will undoubtedly impact the presidential election runoff scheduled to take place on 16 and 17 June between the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsy and Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister.

How the voters will be swayed by the results, however, remains to be seen.

“The Interior Ministry generals are free and are going to be out on the streets mobilizing [support for Shafiq]. Shafiq, who has a military background in addition to being a member of Mubarak’s Cabinet, is viewed as the preferred candidate of the Interior Ministry and the military.

“The verdict helps Shafiq, because it has a possibility of animating his support base. For those who feel a nostalgia for the old regime, who might have good feelings toward Mubarak, it would activate a sense of injustice, and mobilize people to vote for Shafiq”

Many othersr believs the verdict will play into the hands of Morsy and the Muslim Brotherhood, both of whose campaign rhetoric includes touting the rights of the martyrs of the revolution.

Morsy’s campaign coordinator Ahmed Abdel Atty released a statement on the presidential campaign’s Facebook page today commenting on the verdicts: “The blood of our martyrs won’t be wasted. As Egyptians, we will seek a just punishment and a retrial for all those who committed crimes against the nation. The verdict was shocking for the people, who will no longer stay silent for their rights.”

People thin it will play out against Shafiq and is a reminder of what has happened in terms of a loss of rights. It revives what the Mubarak period was about,. “There are those who are committed to supporting the old regime. But doubters may feel uncomfortable with supporting Shafiq. So, they will either boycott the run-offs, or shift the balance toward Morsy.”

Lecturas, Política Internacional | , , , Permalink

En contexto: Tres comentarios

Published: 20 May 2012 by


El nuevo Pacto fiscal, recientemente aprobado, computa los objetivos de déficit en términos  estructurales, es decir, en función de la posición del país en el ciclo económico). No se nos está aplicando ahora.

España en 2012 acordó cumplir un déficit del 6% en 2011, del 4,4% en 2012 y del 3% en 2013. Ello basado en tasas de crecimiento en los años respectivos de 1,3%, 2,3% y 2,4%. Las tasas de crecimiento serán, más bien, 0,7%, -0,1% y -0,3%.

 

Es imposible cumplir los objetivos de déficit nominal establecidos en 2010 con tasas de crecimiento negativos (Guillermo de la Dehesa: El País, 20 de mayo).

Parece también evidente que las inversiones públicas, contrastadas por la Comisión Europea, no debieran contar como déficit. Existe acuerdo mayoritario -si se contrastan por la Comisión, insisto-. Ello ayudaría al crecimiento de hoy y de mañana.(Mario Monti: La Stampa, 7 de Mayo).

Habrá gestores externos que evaluen nuestros bancos, aunque debiéramos conocer, por medios propios, su estado de salud.

Parece que no es así, o al menos  que los inversores no se creen lo que les decimos. Los  gestores externos -aunque solo fuera por su propia reputación- tratarán de encontrar agujeros mayores de los que se sospechan. Sobre todo en un entorno de disminución de nuestro crecimiento. ¿Los encontrarán? Si es así, ¿qué haremos entonces? ¿Cómo tapamos los agujeros? Ejercicio arriesgado (Luis Garicano: El Pais, 20 de mayo).

Además, el periodo en el que estaremos sumidos en la incertidumbre sobre nuestra realidad financiera será largo. La evalucación externa necesitará un mes para una primera estimación y dos meses más para un análisis completo; se nos ha dicho. En definitiva: hasta septiembre. ¿Cómo salvar esta “trampa-tiempo”?

Después de las resoluciones del G-8 -llamada al crecimiento y al empleo- hay un Consejo Europeo informal y otro formal en este mes. Sin renunciar a la estabilidad fiscal, hay que ser consecuente con la variable crecimiento-empleo. Todos lo necesitamos.


Lecturas, Opinión, Política Internacional | , Permalink

Los lazos de los “Princelings” con el dinero en China

Published: 19 May 2012 by

A partir de los asuntos relacionados con Bo Xilai, en China se han desatado las sospechas, rumores etc., sobre quienes más podrían estar involucrados en tramas de corrupción entre la jerarquía China. En particular, entre los denominados “Princeling “, familiares  de los colaboradores estrechos de Mao, caídos en desgracia y posteriormente rehabilitados por Den Xiaoping. Convertidos en un grupo  especial, educados en las mejores escuelas y preparados para ascender en el escalfón del Partido Comunista, han aprovechado al máximo las oportunidades ofrecidas. Todo parece indicar que algunos lo han hecho en exceso, como es el caso de Bo Xilai y su familia. ¿Será el único?

Adjunto el link de un artículo del New York Times que lo analiza con más detalles aportando algunos ejemplos que dan idea de un cierto”spoils sytem” a la altura de la nomenclatura.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/world/asia/china-princelings-using-family-ties-to-gain-riches.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2_20120518

Lecturas, Política Internacional | , , , Permalink